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Influence of statistical uncertainty of component reliability estimations on offshore wind farm availability

机译：组件可靠性估计的统计不确定性对海上风电场可用性的影响

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摘要

Offshore wind turbine reliability, one of the industry's biggest sources of uncertainty, is the focus of the present paper. Specifically the impact of uncertain component failure distributions at constant failure rates has been investigated with respect to its implications for wind farm availability. A fully probabilistic offshore wind simulation model has been applied to quantify results; effects shown in this paper underline the significant impact that failure probability distributions have on asset performance evaluation. It was found that wind farm availability numbers may vary in the range up to 20 % just by changing the distributions of failure to a different pattern; in particular those scenarios in which extensive failure accumulation occurred led to significant losses in production. Results are interpreted and discussed mainly from the viewpoint of an offshore wind farm developer, owner and operator, with implications underlined for application in state-of-the-art offshore wind O&M (Operations and Maintenance) models and simulation tools.
机译：海上风力发电机的可靠性是业界最大的不确定性来源之一，是本文的重点。具体而言，已针对在恒定故障率下不确定的组件故障分布对风电场可用性的影响进行了研究。应用了完全概率的海上风能模拟模型来量化结果。本文显示的影响强调了失败概率分布对资产绩效评估的重大影响。已经发现，仅通过将故障的分布更改为不同的模式，风电场的可用性数字可能会在高达20％的范围内变化。特别是那些发生大量故障累积的场景会导致生产上的重大损失。主要从海上风电场开发商，所有者和运营商的角度来解释和讨论结果，并强调了其在最新海上风电O＆M（运营和维护）模型和模拟工具中的应用。

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